Create confusion by introducing a new factor that the system has little experience of how to manage. And to get the message to spread make it really scary; life-threatening-for-innocent-bystanders-scary; because bad news travels faster than good news. What happens next is predictable; a safety alarm goes off, someone hits the brakes and everything stops. We need time to focus on the new factor, to observe it, investigate it, work out what it is, how it behaves and what to do. We have switched from doing to learning. There is a perfect example of this principle operating on a global scale as I write – a volcano in Iceland that has been dormant since 1821 suddenly spews a cloud of dust high into the sky. There are volcanic eruptions all the time so why is this different? Well, because of a combination of factors that when they combine creates a BIG system-wide impact. First the location of the volcano – on the north-west corner of Europe; then the weather – the prevailing winds are carrying the volcanic plume south and east over the whole of Europe; then the effect – to create a hazard for high altitude commercial jets. Europe is one of the most congested airspaces in the world with around 28,000 flights per day – mostly short haul – but the large European hubs serve as the end points of the trans-global long haul routes. If you want to paralyse global air travel for a completely reversible yet uncontrollable and unpredictable length of time then you probably couldn’t come up with a better plan! The trouble is that the longer the paralysis persists the greater and more irreversible the long term damage. Air travel is an essential component of many industries; so loss of flying capacity not only means loss of revenue and increased costs for airlines – the effects will be felt in every corner of commerce. What triggered this chaos was not just a volcano – it required something else – fear of the unknown. Limited, accidental experience of the interaction of high altitude volcanic plumes and commercial jets shows that all the engines of the jet can shut down – clogged by the volcanic ash. Not an attractive option for anyone. The problem is we simply do not know what the limits of safety are? We are on the horns of an uncomfortable dilemma. The experts and the press who normally feed off each other are uncharacteristically quiet at the moment … everyone is watching, waiting and hoping it will just blow away and we can get back to normal. It won’t and we can’t. Our worldview has just been changed and there is no going back – we have to evolve.
Update 25/04/2010 – I got stranded abroad for a week. It could have been much worse and what was interesting to observe was how the situation was managed. After the initial shock everyone just watched and waited. After a few days it was clear that the problem wasn’t just blowing away. The airlines were haemorrhaging money and were forced to act – by testing if the fear of engine failure was justified. It appeared not to be. A reduction in the volcanic ash being generated, and a shift of the wind, and increasing confidence led to flight activity begin resumed after 7 days. Long before the Authorities could gain any meaningful “scientific” data. The current tasks are to sort out the backlog of displaced passengers; find someone to blame and to sue for compensation. If past behaviour is anything to go by the Authorities will be blamed and the Taxpayers will pick up the bill. Have we learned anything of lasting benefit from this experience? If not then the same lesson will be repeated; sometime, somewhere, somehow – until we do.