{"id":815,"date":"2011-05-28T08:12:11","date_gmt":"2011-05-28T08:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.saasoft.com\/blog\/?p=815"},"modified":"2011-05-28T08:12:11","modified_gmt":"2011-05-28T08:12:11","slug":"watch-out-for-the-overshoot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/?p=815","title":{"rendered":"Watch Out for the Overshoot!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>In 1972\u00a0a group called the Club of Rome\u00a0published a report entitled “The Limits to Growth<\/em>” that\u00a0examined the possible global impact of our current obsession with\u00a0competition and growth. They used\u00a0Jay W Forrester’s <\/em>computer models\u00a0described in World Dynamics <\/em>– models of global stocks and flows\u00a0of natural resources, capital and people\u00a0– and explored the range future possibilities based on the best understanding of current reality. Their\u00a0conclusions were not encouraging – the most likely outcome they predicted\u00a0if\u00a0current behaviours continued would be global natural,\u00a0economic and population collapse before 2100!<\/p>\n

Their conclusions were discounted by governments, corporations and individuals as doom-preaching but it struck a chord with many and helped to fuel the growth of the global environmental movement.<\/p>\n

Thirty years later the original work has been revised, updated and the original predictions compared with actual changes.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0original forecast\u00a0proved to be prophetic – and\u00a0revealed an alarming\u00a0conclusion – that we may already be\u00a0past the point of no return<\/em>. It is now forty years since\u00a0the original work\u00a0and we have enjoyed the predicted boom years of the 1980’s and ignored the warnings\u00a0so many options for avoiding\u00a0a\u00a0future global collapse have already been squandered.\u00a0Even if we\u00a0corrected all the errors of commission and errors of omission today it may be too late\u00a0because we over-estimate our ability to solve problems\u00a0and\u00a0underestimate the effect of “overshoot”.<\/p>\n

Suppose you are driving at night\u00a0in freezing fog and you want to get to your destination as soon as possible so you\u00a0press on\u00a0the accelerator and your speed grows. You have not been on this\u00a0particular road before but\u00a0you have been driving for years and\u00a0you trust your experience,\u00a0skills, and reactions. Suddenly a red light appears out of the gloom – it is a stop light and it is close, too close,\u00a0so\u00a0you hit the brakes! You don’t stop immediately though – you are slowing down but not fast enough.\u00a0The road is slippery, your\u00a0tyres do not grip as well as usual,<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0your momentum carries you on. You are burning up the remaining tarmac fast and\u00a0now you see\u00a0other lights – white lights – coming from the right. A\u00a0juggernaut is\u00a0nearly at\u00a0the\u00a0crossroads and it has\u00a0the green light and\u00a0is not\u00a0slowing down.\u00a0 You are on a crash course – and there is nothing you can do – you have no options.\u00a0The awful realisation dawns that you have made a fatal error of judgement and\u00a0this is the end\u00a0as you overshoot the red light and are crushed to a mangled\u00a0pulp of metal and flesh under the wheels of the juggernaut!<\/em><\/p>\n

The accident was avoidable – in retrospect. Was it avoidable in prospect? Of course – but only
\n– IF we were\u00a0able to challenge our blind trust in our own capability\u00a0and
\n– IF\u00a0we were able to anticipate what could happen and
\n– IF we had set up trustworthy early warning signals\u00a0and
\n– IF\u00a0we had prepared contingency plans of what\u00a0we would do if any of the\u00a0warning bells rang.<\/p>\n

Easy enough for an individual to do perhaps – but\u00a0much more difficult for a group of individuals who have low regard for\u00a0each other and who are competing\u00a0to grow bigger and faster. Our mastery of\u00a0 nature has given us the means to change\u00a0global system dynamics – so our\u00a0collective fate is\u00a0sealed by\u00a0our collective behaviour. We have the ability to achieve\u00a0mutually assured destruction (MAD) without dropping a single bomb – and we are on course\u00a0to do so not because we set out to – but because we did not set out not to<\/em>. The error of omission is the stealth\u00a0killer.<\/p>\n

Is this global disaster scenario realistic?\u00a0Is there anything that can be done? Are we collectively capable of doing it? The evidence suggests\u00a0“yes” to all three questions – there is hope – but it will require a paradigm shift in thinking rather than a breakthrough in technology.<\/p>\n

The laws of physics will seal our fate unless the laws of people adapt – and\u00a0it may already be too late to avoid some degree of catastrophic decline – which implies billions of lives will be\u00a0lost needlessly.\u00a0Those of us in positions of most influence are already to old to\u00a0expect to live to see the fruits of\u00a0our collective error of omission\u00a0–\u00a0our children\u00a0will\u00a0bear\u00a0the pain of our ignorance and arrogance.\u00a0 What do you want carved on your gravestone … “Here lies X – who\u00a0saw but did not act. Sorry.”<\/p>\n

Limits to Growth – the 30 year update. <\/em>ISBN 978-1-84407-144-9<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In 1972\u00a0a group called the Club of Rome\u00a0published a report entitled “The Limits to Growth” that\u00a0examined the possible global impact of our current obsession with\u00a0competition and growth. They used\u00a0Jay W Forrester’s computer models\u00a0described in World Dynamics – models of global stocks and flows\u00a0of natural resources, capital and people\u00a0– and explored the range future possibilities based … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Watch Out for the Overshoot!”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,35,41,48],"tags":[271],"class_list":["post-815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-information","category-reflections","category-stories","category-trust","tag-system-dynamics-ecology-catastrophe-overshoot-club-of-rome-simulation-global"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hcse.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}