![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.improvementscience.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/TenBillion.jpg\" "\\"TenBillion\\"")
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I love history\u00a0– not the dry boring history of learning lists of dates –\u00a0the inspiring history of how leaps in understanding happen after decades of apparently fruitless search.\u00a0 One of the patterns that stands out for me in\u00a0recent history is\u00a0how the growth of the human population has mirrored the changes in our understanding of the Universe.\u00a0 This pattern struck me as curious – given that this has happened only in the last 10,000 years – and it cannot be genetic evolution because the timescale is to short. So what has fuelled this\u00a0population growth? On further investigation I discovered that the population growth is exponential rather than linear – and very recent – within the last 1000 years.\u00a0 Exponential growth\u00a0is a characteristic feature of a system that has a positive feedback loop in it that is not\u00a0balanced by an equal\u00a0and opposite negative feedback loop. So,\u00a0what is being fed back into the system that is creating this unbalanced behaviour? My conclusion\u00a0so far is “collective improvement in understanding”.<\/p>\n
However, exponential growth\u00a0has a dark side –\u00a0it\u00a0is not sustainable. At some point a negative feedback loop will exert itself\u00a0– and there are two\u00a0extremes to\u00a0how fast this can happen: gradual or sudden. Sudden negative feedback is a shock is the one to avoid because it is usually followed by a\u00a0dramatic reversal of\u00a0growth which if\u00a0catastrophic\u00a0enough\u00a0is fatal to the system.\u00a0 When it is less sudden and less severe it\u00a0can lead into\u00a0repeating cycles\u00a0 of growth and decline – boom and bust – which is\u00a0just a more painful path to the same end.\u00a0\u00a0This somewhat disquieting conclusion\u00a0led me to conduct\u00a0the thought experiment that is illustrated by the\u00a0diagram: If our growth is fuelled by our ability to learn, to use and to maintain\u00a0our collective\u00a0knowledge\u00a0what changes in how we do this must have happened over the last 1000 years?\u00a0 Biologically we are\u00a0social animals and using our genetic inheritance we seem only\u00a0able to maintain about 100 active relationships – which explains the natural size of\u00a0family groups where face-to-face communication is paramount.\u00a0 To support a stable group that is larger than 100 we\u00a0must have developed learned behaviours and social structures.\u00a0History tells us that we created communities by differentiating into\u00a0specialised\u00a0functions and to\u00a0be stable these were\u00a0cooperative rather than competitive and\u00a0the natural multiplier seems to be about 100.\u00a0 A community with more than 10,000 people is\u00a0difficult to sustain with an\u00a0ad hoc power structure with a powerful leader\u00a0and we\u00a0develop collective “rules” and a more democratic design – which fuels another 100 fold expansion\u00a0to 1 million –\u00a0the order of magnitide of a country\u00a0or city.\u00a0Multiply by 100 again and we get\u00a0the size that is typical of a country and\u00a0the social structures required to achieve\u00a0stablity\u00a0on this scale\u00a0are different again – we needed to develop a way of actively seeking new knowledge,\u00a0continuously re-writing the rule books, and industrialising our knowkedge. This has only happened over the last 300 years.\u00a0 The next multipler takes us to\u00a0Ten Billion – the order of magnitude of the current\u00a0global population – and it is at this stage that\u00a0 our current systems\u00a0seem to be struggling\u00a0again.<\/p>\n
From this geometric perspective\u00a0we appear to be\u00a0approaching a natural human system\u00a0barrier that our current knowledge management methods seem\u00a0inadequate\u00a0to\u00a0dismantle\u00a0– and if we press on\u00a0in denial then we face the prospect of a sudden and catastrophic change – for the worse. Regression to a bygone age would have the same effect because those systems are not designed to suport the global economy.<\/p>\n
So, what would have to change in the way we manage our\u00a0collective knowledge that would\u00a0avoid a Big Crunch and would steer us to a stable and sustainable future?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I love history\u00a0– not the dry boring history of learning lists of dates –\u00a0the inspiring history of how leaps in understanding happen after decades of apparently fruitless search.\u00a0 One of the patterns that stands out for me in\u00a0recent history is\u00a0how the growth of the human population has mirrored the changes in our understanding of the … <\/p>\n